How the math works

Where the data comes from

Each state lottery publishes remaining-prize reports for its scratch-off games: how many prizes existed at each tier, and how many are still unclaimed. We collect these reports daily from the official lottery websites. No estimates, surveys, or third-party feeds — just the lottery’s own numbers.

Estimating tickets remaining

Lotteries report remaining prizes, not remaining tickets. To bridge that gap we use the game’s printed overall odds. If a game has 1-in-4 overall odds and 1,000,000 prizes have been claimed, roughly 4,000,000 tickets have been sold:

tickets sold ≈ prizes paid out × overall odds
tickets remaining ≈ tickets printed − tickets sold

Expected value and ROI

The expected value (EV) of a ticket is the total dollar value of all unclaimed prizes divided by the estimated tickets remaining. ROI expresses that as a return on the ticket price:

EV  = remaining prize pool ÷ tickets remaining
ROI = (EV − ticket price) ÷ ticket price

ROI is almost always negative — that’s how lotteries work. A ticket at −20% ROI returns 80 cents on the dollar on average; one at −70% returns 30 cents. The rankings tell you which games currently lose the least, and occasionally flag games whose remaining prize pool is unusually rich for the tickets left.

Win odds and jackpot odds

The odds printed on a ticket were true on day one. As a game sells down, the real odds drift. We adjust both for the current state of the game:

win odds     = tickets remaining ÷ total prizes remaining
jackpot odds = tickets remaining ÷ top prizes remaining

Lower is better for both. When a game’s top prize has all been claimed, we show no jackpot odds — there is nothing left to win at that tier.

What the colors mean

ROI figures are colored on a fixed scale, relative to how scratch-offs actually perform:

• −30% or better — excellent for a scratch-off
• −30% to −50% — good
• −50% to −70% — typical
• −70% to −85% — poor
• below −85% — heavily depleted

Limitations

• Tickets-remaining figures are estimates derived from printed odds, not exact counts.
• Some states don’t publish total tickets printed; for those games we fall back to simpler ratios and omit adjusted odds.
• Lottery sites update on their own schedules — our data is only as fresh as theirs.
• A positive-looking trend never makes a ticket a good investment. Every figure on this site assumes you understand that scratch-offs lose money on average.